Researchers at the Nagoya Institute of Technology are now offering six-day forecasts for the daily number of people expected to be transported to hospitals by ambulance due to heatstroke. These forecasts, covering Tokyo and seven other prefectures — including Aichi, Osaka, and Fukuoka — are accessible to the public on their website. The goal of these forecasts is to aid in heatstroke prevention and support emergency medical care centers.
The team developed their forecasting formula by analyzing weather data from 2013 to 2019 and examining information on approximately 140,000 individuals who were hospitalized. They also consider factors such as people's physical characteristics, including the heightened risk immediately following the rainy season when people are not yet acclimated to the heat, as well as the percentage of elderly residents in each area. This data is integrated with weekly weather forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which are updated daily, to generate their heatstroke predictions.
The website displays a map of Japan on which prefectures are color coded to indicate the number of expected hospitalizations on a given day, from “24 or less” (pink) to 100 or more” (purple). A line graph indicates forecasts for up to six days in advance. The wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat index, which is based on temperature and humidity, is an existing indicator of the risk of heatstroke, but predictions for this are only available two days in advance.
The Nagoya team's forecasts, which extend up to six days in advance, help individuals plan outings and outdoor events more effectively. They also provide firefighters and medical institutions with additional time to prepare for incoming patients. According to Prof. Akimasa Hirata, a member of the research team who has previously used artificial intelligence to predict COVID-19 case numbers for a Cabinet Secretariat project, this advanced forecasting plays a crucial role in these preparations. “I hope that the predictions will be used in various fields”, he said at a press conference.
